TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12419737
Played Aug 13Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711811911––
Kamil Kowalski
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:01 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Rafal Gajda at 60.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 3–4 Kamil Kowalski Rafal Gajda has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:01What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gajda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1340 vs Kowalski 1024
Gajda
Wrong
both rated, 316 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 40% vs Kowalski 0%
Gajda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 60% vs Kowalski 10%
Gajda
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda -1 · Kowalski -5
Kowalski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.40 / Kowalski 2.75
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Gajda)+6.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12419737
Gajda1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 165 of 284
Up 2–0, closes it91% 69 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it74% 113 of 152
Kowalski2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog16% won 15 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back3% 2 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeGajda3wins
AwayKowalski4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKowalski leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda66.7%2 of 3
AwayKowalski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda3Kowalski4n = 7Kowalski took 4 of 7
S2Gajda2Kowalski5n = 7Kowalski took 5 of 7
S3Gajda4Kowalski3n = 7Gajda took 4 of 7
S4Gajda3Kowalski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricGajdaKowalskiG − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match39.740.6−0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 694 vs 16 / 10951.9%14.7%360 / 694 vs 16 / 109Avg sets wonper match2.11.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.632.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 1.40/Kowalski 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.3%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kowalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 13 · 04:10R. Gajda—11911113K. Kowalski—811681
LAug 11 · 09:00R. Gajda—1112811102K. Kowalski—714119123
LAug 11 · 03:50R. Gajda—127100K. Kowalski—1411123
WAug 6 · 10:35R. Gajda—101111113K. Kowalski—127591
LAug 6 · 03:00R. Gajda—981191K. Kowalski—11116113
LAug 4 · 14:20R. Gajda—681181K. Kowalski—11119113
WAug 4 · 08:10R. Gajda—111127113K. Kowalski—97111192
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282
K. Kowalski10
LSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172LSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891LSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek1.101111911113K. Kowalski6.5091311762LSep 3 · 07:45K. Kowalski6.50116761P. Kurek1.1081111113LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.50107100O. Vincenec1.281211123LSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571LSep 3 · 03:25K. Kowalski3.259780M. Sikon1.331111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Gajda2 of 3 neutral
K. Kowalski
Nothing scheduled
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