TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065137
Played Sep 3Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6116111113––––
Rafal Gajda
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Rafal Gajda below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 58 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Rafal Gajda at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 0–7 Rafal Gajda Pawel Kurek has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gajda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-7 in 7
Gajda
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1402 vs Gajda 1396
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Gajda 60%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 70% vs Gajda 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +4 · Gajda -1
Kurek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.10 / Gajda 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Gajda)-1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13065137
Kurek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 113 of 291
Down 0–1, comes back23% 38 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 93
Gajda1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 171 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it92% 76 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it75% 118 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKurek0wins
AwayGajda7wins
2 of 7 to a deciderGajda leads 7–0, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGajda100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek1Gajda6n = 7Gajda took 6 of 7
S2Kurek3Gajda4n = 7Gajda took 4 of 7
S3Kurek2Gajda5n = 7Gajda took 5 of 7
S4Kurek2Gajda4n = 6Gajda took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKurekGajdaK − GBasisWins07−7in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match32.943.0−10.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 735 vs 405 / 78350.1%51.7%368 / 735 vs 405 / 783Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaKurek 2.10/Gajda 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 3 · 06:55P. Kurek—79111162R. Gajda—111189113
LAug 20 · 09:50P. Kurek—341151R. Gajda—11119113
LAug 20 · 05:40P. Kurek—37120R. Gajda—1111143
LJul 30 · 13:05P. Kurek—13111261R. Gajda—15914113
LJul 30 · 06:55P. Kurek—91151172R. Gajda—117118113
LJul 2 · 09:25P. Kurek—711161R. Gajda—11611113
LJul 2 · 03:25P. Kurek—115691R. Gajda—41111113
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113
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