TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065185
Played Sep 3Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118311115117––
Kamil Kowalski
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 67 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Rafal Gajda at 60.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 3–4 Kamil Kowalski Rafal Gajda has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gajda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1357 vs Kowalski 1044
Gajda
Correct
both rated, 313 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 80% vs Kowalski 20%
Gajda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 60% vs Kowalski 20%
Gajda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +3 · Kowalski -1
Gajda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.53 / Kowalski 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Gajda)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065185
Gajda1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 165 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it91% 73 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 113 of 152
Kowalski2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog17% won 17 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back5% 3 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeGajda3wins
AwayKowalski4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKowalski leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda66.7%2 of 3
AwayKowalski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda3Kowalski4n = 7Kowalski took 4 of 7
S2Gajda2Kowalski5n = 7Kowalski took 5 of 7
S3Gajda4Kowalski3n = 7Gajda took 4 of 7
S4Gajda3Kowalski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricGajdaKowalskiG − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match39.740.6−0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 776 vs 17 / 11151.6%15.3%400 / 776 vs 17 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.11.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.432.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 1.53/Kowalski 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 13 · 04:10R. Gajda—11911113K. Kowalski—811681
LAug 11 · 09:00R. Gajda—1112811102K. Kowalski—714119123
LAug 11 · 03:50R. Gajda—127100K. Kowalski—1411123
WAug 6 · 10:35R. Gajda—101111113K. Kowalski—127591
LAug 6 · 03:00R. Gajda—981191K. Kowalski—11116113
LAug 4 · 14:20R. Gajda—681181K. Kowalski—11119113
WAug 4 · 08:10R. Gajda—111127113K. Kowalski—97111192
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113
K. Kowalski10
LSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172LSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891LSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek1.101111911113K. Kowalski6.5091311762LSep 3 · 07:45K. Kowalski6.50116761P. Kurek1.1081111113LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.50107100O. Vincenec1.281211123LSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 03:25K. Kowalski3.259780M. Sikon1.331111113WAug 13 · 13:55R. Gajda1.40117891K. Kowalski2.7571111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Gajda2 of 3 neutral
K. Kowalski
Nothing scheduled
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