TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065176
Played Sep 3Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51113118111191513
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 107 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Mateusz Sikon at 58.9%
107 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 2–5 Mateusz Sikon Rafal Gajda has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:29What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sikon
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Sikon
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1394 vs Sikon 1352
Gajda
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 100% vs Sikon 80%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 80% vs Sikon 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +5 · Sikon +1
Gajda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sikon)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 2.20 / Sikon 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sikon)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13065176
Gajda2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 139 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back28% 49 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 86
Sikon1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 48 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 29 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeGajda2wins
AwaySikon5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderSikon leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda33.3%1 of 3
AwaySikon75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda3Sikon4n = 7Sikon took 4 of 7
S2Gajda3Sikon4n = 7Sikon took 4 of 7
S3Gajda3Sikon4n = 7Sikon took 4 of 7
S4Gajda2Sikon3n = 5Sikon took 3 of 5
S5Gajda1Sikon2n = 3Sikon took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricGajdaSikonG − SBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match40.741.3−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 780 vs 129 / 35051.8%36.9%404 / 780 vs 129 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.536.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonGajda 2.20/Sikon 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda—513811153M. Sikon—1111119132
LAug 27 · 09:50R. Gajda—7990M. Sikon—1111113
LAug 27 · 05:40R. Gajda—81281192M. Sikon—1110117113
LAug 13 · 12:40R. Gajda—1181191M. Sikon—71113113
WAug 13 · 06:50R. Gajda—1311113M. Sikon—11390
LJul 23 · 09:50R. Gajda—1311111082M. Sikon—1113112113
LJul 23 · 05:40R. Gajda—851191M. Sikon—11115113
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113
M. Sikon10
LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113WSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113
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