TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065109
Played Sep 3Finished
Oliver Vincenec
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6119111121161412
Rafal Gajda
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Rafal Gajda below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 93 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 12–14 Rafal Gajda Oliver Vincenec has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:20What took a side0 for · 6 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gajda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-14 in 26
Gajda
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1364 vs Gajda 1394
Gajda
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 60% vs Gajda 100%
Gajda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 60% vs Gajda 90%
Gajda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +2 · Gajda +5
Gajda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.83 / Gajda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gajda)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13065109
Vincenec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Gajda1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec5wins
AwayGajda5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec66.7%4 of 6
AwayGajda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec6Gajda4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec3Gajda7n = 10Gajda took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec3Gajda7n = 10Gajda took 7 of 10
S4Vincenec5Gajda3n = 8Vincenec took 5 of 8
S5Vincenec2Gajda1n = 3Vincenec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecGajdaV − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.641.3−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime638 / 1414 vs 404 / 78045.1%51.8%638 / 1414 vs 404 / 780Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaVincenec 1.83/Gajda 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 05:40O. Vincenec—1311551R. Gajda—111311113
WSep 1 · 14:40O. Vincenec—111111143R. Gajda—6138121
WSep 1 · 06:05O. Vincenec—12114123R. Gajda—10811101
WAug 27 · 13:55O. Vincenec—912412113R. Gajda—1110111092
LAug 27 · 04:10O. Vincenec—8550R. Gajda—1111113
WAug 19 · 13:30O. Vincenec—118128113R. Gajda—611101192
LAug 19 · 07:30O. Vincenec—3980R. Gajda—1111113
LAug 12 · 17:05O. Vincenec—9711111R. Gajda—11116133
LAug 12 · 08:45O. Vincenec—11581132R. Gajda—811118113
WAug 11 · 11:50O. Vincenec—111210113R. Gajda—5101281
O. Vincenec10
LSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882WSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113WSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660WSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670LSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191LSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970LSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Vincenec1 of 1 neutral
R. Gajda2 of 3 neutral
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