TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065131
Played Sep 3Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131311115115––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 80 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 13–12 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vincenec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1373 vs Vincenec 1354
Gajda
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 80% vs Vincenec 60%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 70% vs Vincenec 50%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +4 · Vincenec -1
Gajda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.83 / Vincenec 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vincenec)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13065131
Gajda1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Vincenec1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGajda4wins
AwayVincenec6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda60%3 of 5
AwayVincenec80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S2Gajda6Vincenec4n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S3Gajda6Vincenec4n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S4Gajda2Vincenec6n = 8Vincenec took 6 of 8
S5Gajda1Vincenec2n = 3Vincenec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGajdaVincenecG − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.5+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 778 vs 636 / 141251.7%45%402 / 778 vs 636 / 1412Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecGajda 1.83/Vincenec 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 14:40R. Gajda—6138121O. Vincenec—111111143
LSep 1 · 06:05R. Gajda—10811101O. Vincenec—12114123
LAug 27 · 13:55R. Gajda—1110111092O. Vincenec—912412113
WAug 27 · 04:10R. Gajda—1111113O. Vincenec—8550
LAug 19 · 13:30R. Gajda—611101192O. Vincenec—118128113
WAug 19 · 07:30R. Gajda—1111113O. Vincenec—3980
WAug 12 · 17:05R. Gajda—11116133O. Vincenec—9711111
WAug 12 · 08:45R. Gajda—811118113O. Vincenec—11581132
LAug 11 · 11:50R. Gajda—5101281O. Vincenec—111210113
LAug 6 · 13:55R. Gajda—1189101O. Vincenec—91111123
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882WSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113WSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660WSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670LSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191LSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970WSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122
Upcoming Matches
R. Gajda2 of 3 neutral
O. Vincenec1 of 1 neutral
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