TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065191
Played Sep 3Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1185111210811711
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Mateusz Sikon at 58.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 2–5 Mateusz Sikon Rafal Gajda has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sikon
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Sikon
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1388 vs Sikon 1380
Gajda
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 80% vs Sikon 60%
Gajda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 80% vs Sikon 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +1 · Sikon +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sikon)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 2.20 / Sikon 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sikon)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13065191
Gajda2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 139 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back28% 49 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 86
Sikon1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 48 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 29 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeGajda2wins
AwaySikon5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderSikon leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda33.3%1 of 3
AwaySikon75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda3Sikon4n = 7Sikon took 4 of 7
S2Gajda3Sikon4n = 7Sikon took 4 of 7
S3Gajda3Sikon4n = 7Sikon took 4 of 7
S4Gajda2Sikon3n = 5Sikon took 3 of 5
S5Gajda1Sikon2n = 3Sikon took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricGajdaSikonG − SBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match40.741.3−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 782 vs 131 / 35251.8%37.2%405 / 782 vs 131 / 352Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonGajda 2.20/Sikon 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda—513811153M. Sikon—1111119132
LAug 27 · 09:50R. Gajda—7990M. Sikon—1111113
LAug 27 · 05:40R. Gajda—81281192M. Sikon—1110117113
LAug 13 · 12:40R. Gajda—1181191M. Sikon—71113113
WAug 13 · 06:50R. Gajda—1311113M. Sikon—11390
LJul 23 · 09:50R. Gajda—1311111082M. Sikon—1113112113
LJul 23 · 05:40R. Gajda—851191M. Sikon—11115113
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113
M. Sikon10
LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132
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