TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065186
Played Sep 3Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114117411911119
Kamil Kowalski
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Rafal Gajda at 60.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 4–5 Kamil Kowalski Rafal Gajda has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:29What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gajda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1383 vs Kowalski 1018
Gajda
Correct
both rated, 364 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 80% vs Kowalski 0%
Gajda
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 80% vs Kowalski 10%
Gajda
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda -1 · Kowalski -5
Kowalski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.53 / Kowalski 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Gajda)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065186
Gajda1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 171 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it92% 76 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it75% 118 of 158
Kowalski2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog16% won 17 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeGajda4wins
AwayKowalski5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKowalski leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda60%3 of 5
AwayKowalski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda5Kowalski4n = 9Gajda took 5 of 9
S2Gajda2Kowalski7n = 9Kowalski took 7 of 9
S3Gajda5Kowalski4n = 9Gajda took 5 of 9
S4Gajda4Kowalski4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricGajdaKowalskiG − KBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.839.4−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 781 vs 17 / 11651.7%14.7%404 / 781 vs 17 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.11.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.532.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 1.53/Kowalski 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda—11311113K. Kowalski—811571
LAug 13 · 13:55R. Gajda—117891K. Kowalski—71111113
WAug 13 · 04:10R. Gajda—11911113K. Kowalski—811681
LAug 11 · 09:00R. Gajda—1112811102K. Kowalski—714119123
LAug 11 · 03:50R. Gajda—127100K. Kowalski—1411123
WAug 6 · 10:35R. Gajda—101111113K. Kowalski—127591
LAug 6 · 03:00R. Gajda—981191K. Kowalski—11116113
LAug 4 · 14:20R. Gajda—681181K. Kowalski—11119113
WAug 4 · 08:10R. Gajda—111127113K. Kowalski—97111192
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113
K. Kowalski10
LSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172LSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891LSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek1.101111911113K. Kowalski6.5091311762LSep 3 · 07:45K. Kowalski6.50116761P. Kurek1.1081111113LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.50107100O. Vincenec1.281211123LSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571LSep 3 · 03:25K. Kowalski3.259780M. Sikon1.331111113WAug 13 · 13:55R. Gajda1.40117891K. Kowalski2.7571111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Gajda2 of 3 neutral
K. Kowalski
Nothing scheduled
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