TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065151
Played Sep 3Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811118119––
Kamil Kowalski
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Sikon above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Mateusz Sikon at 69.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Sikon 4–1 Kamil Kowalski Kamil Kowalski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Sikon
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Sikon
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1372 vs Kowalski 1001
Sikon
Correct
both rated, 372 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 80% vs Kowalski 0%
Sikon
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 80% vs Kowalski 10%
Sikon
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon +3 · Kowalski -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Sikon) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 1.30 / Kowalski 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Sikon)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065151
Sikon1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 48 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 29 of 39
Kowalski3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog16% won 17 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSikon4wins
AwayKowalski1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSikon leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikon100%3 of 3
AwayKowalskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon3Kowalski2n = 5Sikon took 3 of 5
S2Sikon2Kowalski3n = 5Kowalski took 3 of 5
S3Sikon4Kowalski1n = 5Sikon took 4 of 5
S4Sikon4Kowalski0n = 4Sikon took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSikonKowalskiS − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.235.8+6.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 353 vs 17 / 11837.4%14.4%132 / 353 vs 17 / 118Avg sets wonper match1.71.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.232.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonSikon 1.30/Kowalski 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 3 · 03:25M. Sikon—1111113K. Kowalski—9780
WAug 13 · 09:50M. Sikon—11811113K. Kowalski—611681
LAug 13 · 06:10M. Sikon—59131182K. Kowalski—1111117113
WJul 25 · 10:10M. Sikon—911911113K. Kowalski—11611572
WJul 25 · 07:45M. Sikon—11711113K. Kowalski—811591
M. Sikon10
LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113WSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113
K. Kowalski10
LSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172LSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek1.101111911113K. Kowalski6.5091311762LSep 3 · 07:45K. Kowalski6.50116761P. Kurek1.1081111113LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.50107100O. Vincenec1.281211123LSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571LSep 3 · 03:25K. Kowalski3.259780M. Sikon1.331111113WAug 13 · 13:55R. Gajda1.40117891K. Kowalski2.7571111113
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