TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065149
Played Sep 3Finished
Kamil Kowalski
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711811––––
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:27 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Mateusz Sikon at 69.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 1–4 Mateusz Sikon Kamil Kowalski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:27What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Sikon
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Sikon
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1044 vs Sikon 1355
Sikon
Correct
both rated, 311 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 20% vs Sikon 80%
Sikon
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 20% vs Sikon 70%
Sikon
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski +1 · Sikon +3
Sikon
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Sikon) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 3.25 / Sikon 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Sikon)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065149
Kowalski3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog17% won 17 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back5% 3 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 44
Sikon1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 45 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKowalski1wins
AwaySikon4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSikon leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySikon100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalski2Sikon3n = 5Sikon took 3 of 5
S2Kowalski3Sikon2n = 5Kowalski took 3 of 5
S3Kowalski1Sikon4n = 5Sikon took 4 of 5
S4Kowalski0Sikon4n = 4Sikon took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKowalskiSikonK − SBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.842.2−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 111 vs 127 / 34615.3%36.7%17 / 111 vs 127 / 346Avg sets wonper match1.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match32.436.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonKowalski 3.25/Sikon 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 3 · 03:25K. Kowalski—9780M. Sikon—1111113
LAug 13 · 09:50K. Kowalski—611681M. Sikon—11811113
WAug 13 · 06:10K. Kowalski—1111117113M. Sikon—59131182
LJul 25 · 10:10K. Kowalski—11611572M. Sikon—911911113
LJul 25 · 07:45K. Kowalski—811591M. Sikon—11711113
K. Kowalski10
LSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172LSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891LSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek1.101111911113K. Kowalski6.5091311762LSep 3 · 07:45K. Kowalski6.50116761P. Kurek1.1081111113LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.50107100O. Vincenec1.281211123LSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WAug 13 · 13:55R. Gajda1.40117891K. Kowalski2.7571111113
M. Sikon10
LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113WSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891
Upcoming Matches
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M. Sikon
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