TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065219
Played Sep 3Finished
Kamil Kowalski
Home
6.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611711611––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 88.3% is still 88.3%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
88.3%
88.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Pawel Kurek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 88.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 0–4 Pawel Kurek Kamil Kowalski has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Kurek
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1025 vs Kurek 1374
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 349 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 20% vs Kurek 40%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 10% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -4 · Kurek -1
Kowalski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Kurek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 6.50 / Kurek 1.10
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Kurek)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13065219
Kowalski6.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog16% won 17 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Kurek1.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 194 of 294
Up 2–0, closes it94% 95 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it85% 139 of 164
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKowalski0wins
AwayKurek4wins
Kurek leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalski2Kurek2n = 4split evenly
S2Kowalski0Kurek4n = 4Kurek took 4 of 4
S3Kowalski0Kurek4n = 4Kurek took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricKowalskiKurekKowalski − KurekBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match29.837.2−7.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 114 vs 364 / 73114.9%49.8%17 / 114 vs 364 / 731Avg sets wonper match1.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKowalski 6.50/Kurek 1.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 12 · 09:00K. Kowalski—1151091P. Kurek—71112113
LAug 12 · 05:15K. Kowalski—1166121P. Kurek—51111143
LJul 25 · 13:05K. Kowalski—99100P. Kurek—1111123
LJul 25 · 06:55K. Kowalski—6690P. Kurek—1111113
K. Kowalski10
LSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172LSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891LSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek1.101111911113K. Kowalski6.5091311762LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.50107100O. Vincenec1.281211123LSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571LSep 3 · 03:25K. Kowalski3.259780M. Sikon1.331111113WAug 13 · 13:55R. Gajda1.40117891K. Kowalski2.7571111113
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782WSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek1.101111911113K. Kowalski6.5091311762
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