TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089340
Played Sep 6Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118911119311
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
811118911119311
H2H Grzegorz Marud 2–4 Pawel Kurek Grzegorz Marud has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Kurek
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1370 vs Kurek 1396
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 20% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.86 / Kurek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13089340
Marud1.86
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 131 of 316
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Kurek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 199 of 301
Up 2–0, closes it93% 95 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 140 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMarud2wins
AwayKurek4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderKurek leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud33.3%1 of 3
AwayKurek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud3Kurek3n = 6split evenly
S2Marud4Kurek2n = 6Marud took 4 of 6
S3Marud1Kurek5n = 6Kurek took 5 of 6
S4Marud1Kurek2n = 3Kurek took 2 of 3
S5Marud1Kurek2n = 3Kurek took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMarudKurekM − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match35.039.7−4.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1355 vs 375 / 75046.9%50%635 / 1355 vs 375 / 750Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekMarud 1.86/Kurek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 4 · 24:20G. Marud—16128892P. Kurek—14101111113
WAug 3 · 20:20G. Marud—4111214123P. Kurek—1141412102
LAug 3 · 24:20G. Marud—11114882P. Kurek—481111113
WAug 2 · 20:20G. Marud—1111113P. Kurek—7750
LApr 28 · 20:45G. Marud—4380P. Kurek—1111113
LNov 4 · 21:45G. Marud—8510P. Kurek—1111113
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113LSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113LSep 2 · 24:35G. Marud2.209740O. Jadach1.611111113
P. Kurek10
WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 4 · 14:20R. Piechnik3.5011961182P. Kurek1.28511118113WSep 4 · 13:30J. Pruszkowski1.44591171P. Kurek2.6311118113
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