TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058107
Played Sep 2Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711411––––
Oskar Jadach
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:22 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeOskar Jadach to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Oskar Jadach below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 53 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Oskar Jadach at 72.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 27–95 Oskar Jadach Grzegorz Marud has won 27 of their 122 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:22What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jadach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-95 in 122
Jadach
Correct
gap of 68 in 122, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1396 vs Jadach 1477
Jadach
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 100% vs Jadach 40%
Marud
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 60% vs Jadach 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +5 · Jadach +1
Marud
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jadach) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadach form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 2.20 / Jadach 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Jadach)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13058107
Marud2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 131 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Jadach1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 299 of 450
Up 2–0, closes it94% 139 of 148
Up 1–0, closes it85% 205 of 241
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud5wins
AwayJadach5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud83.3%5 of 6
AwayJadach100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud6Jadach4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S2Marud7Jadach3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S3Marud4Jadach6n = 10Jadach took 6 of 10
S4Marud2Jadach4n = 6Jadach took 4 of 6
S5Marud1Jadach2n = 3Jadach took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudJadachM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.534.7+1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudJadachBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1363 vs 794 / 131147%60.6%641 / 1363 vs 794 / 1311Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadachMarud 2.20/Jadach 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Jadach · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jadach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 18:30G. Marud—111198113O. Jadach—75111162
WFeb 17 · 03:20G. Marud—1111113O. Jadach—4870
WFeb 16 · 19:20G. Marud—11118113O. Jadach—671181
LFeb 16 · 03:20G. Marud—141151272O. Jadach—1231114113
LFeb 15 · 19:20G. Marud—8960O. Jadach—1111113
LJan 6 · 03:20G. Marud—101111462O. Jadach—126811113
WJan 5 · 19:20G. Marud—1113113O. Jadach—61170
LJan 5 · 03:20G. Marud—691191O. Jadach—11112113
WJan 4 · 19:20G. Marud—12113113O. Jadach—1031181
LDec 30 · 03:20G. Marud—8570O. Jadach—1111113
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113
O. Jadach10
WSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652LSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113LSep 6 · 21:30L. Oracz1.751111113O. Jadach1.926670WSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782WSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113
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