TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065179
Played Sep 3Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117119811911116
Pawel Kurek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Pawel Kurek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Rafal Gajda at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 8–0 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gajda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-0 in 8
Gajda
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1416 vs Kurek 1401
Gajda
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 100% vs Kurek 60%
Gajda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 80% vs Kurek 60%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +5 · Kurek +2
Gajda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.67 / Kurek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Gajda)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13065179
Gajda1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 176 of 297
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 122 of 162
Kurek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 114 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back23% 39 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGajda8wins
AwayKurek0wins
2 of 8 to a deciderGajda leads 8–0, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda100%7 of 7
AwayKurekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda7Kurek1n = 8Gajda took 7 of 8
S2Gajda5Kurek3n = 8Gajda took 5 of 8
S3Gajda6Kurek2n = 8Gajda took 6 of 8
S4Gajda4Kurek2n = 6Gajda took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricGajdaKurekG − KBasisWins80+8in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match42.031.6+10.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 785 vs 374 / 74751.9%50.1%407 / 785 vs 374 / 747Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 1.67/Kurek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 3 · 13:05R. Gajda—1111133P. Kurek—66110
WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda—111189113P. Kurek—79111162
WAug 20 · 09:50R. Gajda—11119113P. Kurek—341151
WAug 20 · 05:40R. Gajda—1111143P. Kurek—37120
WJul 30 · 13:05R. Gajda—15914113P. Kurek—13111261
WJul 30 · 06:55R. Gajda—117118113P. Kurek—91151172
WJul 2 · 09:25R. Gajda—11611113P. Kurek—711161
WJul 2 · 03:25R. Gajda—41111113P. Kurek—115691
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133
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