TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082245
Played Sep 6Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114711114118––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 67 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 1–1 Oliver Vincenec Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sobkow
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1474 vs Vincenec 1345
Sobkow
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 20% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 40% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow +1 · Vincenec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.61 / Vincenec 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082245
Sobkow1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite62% won 23 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Vincenec2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 193 of 489
Down 0–1, comes back25% 72 of 293
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSobkow1wins
AwayVincenec1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSobkowVincenecS − VBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match38.535.0+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 70 vs 641 / 142057.1%45.1%40 / 70 vs 641 / 1420Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.61/Vincenec 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow—11711113O. Vincenec—411481
LJun 18 · 06:45Z. Sobkow—11610101O. Vincenec—81112123
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 5 · 13:55Z. Sobkow2.63111012113P. Jedrzejak1.449121061
O. Vincenec10
LSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882WSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113WSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660WSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670LSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191LSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970WSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Nothing scheduled
O. Vincenec1 of 1 neutral
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