TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13085778
Played Sep 6Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711119115118––
Jakub Jesiek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:08 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Jesiek to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Jesiek at 56.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 1–1 Jakub Jesiek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:08What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sobkow
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1411 vs Jesiek 1394
Sobkow
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 20% vs Jesiek 60%
Jesiek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 40% vs Jesiek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -1 · Jesiek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.73 / Jesiek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13085778
Sobkow1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Jesiek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 73 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSobkow1wins
AwayJesiek1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSobkowJesiekS − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match34.034.00.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 77 vs 273 / 52155.8%52.4%43 / 77 vs 273 / 521Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.73/Jesiek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow—71111113J. Jesiek—119581
LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow—81190J. Jesiek—1113113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481WSep 5 · 13:55Z. Sobkow2.63111012113P. Jedrzejak1.449121061
J. Jesiek10
WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882WSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123LSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670WSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113LSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281WSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113LSep 5 · 16:40J. Jesiek1.7611690W. Buczynski1.901311113
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