TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082458
Played Sep 6Finished
Patryk Jedrzejak
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411411611––––
Jakub Jesiek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timePatryk Jedrzejak to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatryk Jedrzejak above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 47 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Patryk Jedrzejak at 64.0%
47 points played in total.
H2H Patryk Jedrzejak 6–6 Jakub Jesiek Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jedrzejak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jedrzejak 1446 vs Jesiek 1362
Jedrzejak
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jedrzejak 20% vs Jesiek 40%
Jesiek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jedrzejak 50% vs Jesiek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jedrzejak +1 · Jesiek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Jedrzejak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jedrzejak form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJedrzejak 1.44 / Jesiek 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Jedrzejak)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13082458
Jedrzejak1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 171 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it97% 99 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it86% 131 of 152
Jesiek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 73 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJedrzejak4wins
AwayJesiek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJesiek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJedrzejak50%2 of 4
AwayJesiek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jedrzejak4Jesiek6n = 10Jesiek took 6 of 10
S2Jedrzejak4Jesiek6n = 10Jesiek took 6 of 10
S3Jedrzejak5Jesiek5n = 10split evenly
S4Jedrzejak4Jesiek4n = 8split evenly
S5Jedrzejak3Jesiek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJedrzejakJesiekJedrzejak − JesiekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.142.9−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJedrzejakJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 538 vs 274 / 52367.5%52.4%363 / 538 vs 274 / 523Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejakJedrzejak 1.44/Jesiek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Jedrzejak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jesiek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak—4460J. Jesiek—1111113
LSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak—11881172J. Jesiek—511119113
LAug 22 · 15:30P. Jedrzejak—39111172J. Jesiek—111175113
WAug 22 · 09:30P. Jedrzejak—9131111113J. Jesiek—11153692
LMay 24 · 15:30P. Jedrzejak—891191J. Jesiek—11118113
LMay 24 · 09:30P. Jedrzejak—81481172J. Jesiek—1112117113
WMay 23 · 15:30P. Jedrzejak—11111018113J. Jesiek—97122092
WMay 23 · 09:30P. Jedrzejak—7111110113J. Jesiek—11881262
LMay 3 · 13:10P. Jedrzejak—1111871J. Jesiek—81311113
WMay 3 · 05:30P. Jedrzejak—1111113J. Jesiek—8860
P. Jedrzejak10
WSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661LSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113WSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970WSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940LSep 5 · 13:55Z. Sobkow2.63111012113P. Jedrzejak1.449121061
J. Jesiek10
LSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882LSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581WSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123LSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670WSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113LSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281WSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113LSep 5 · 16:40J. Jesiek1.7611690W. Buczynski1.901311113
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