TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083426
Played Sep 6Finished
Jacek Wieczerzak
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8119111012––––
Jakub Jesiek
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:09 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeJacek Wieczerzak to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJacek Wieczerzak above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 61 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Jacek Wieczerzak at 71.6%
61 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Wieczerzak 2–1 Jakub Jesiek Jakub Jesiek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:09What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Wieczerzak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wieczerzak 1493 vs Jesiek 1348
Wieczerzak
Wrong
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wieczerzak 40% vs Jesiek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wieczerzak 40% vs Jesiek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wieczerzak +2 · Jesiek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Wieczerzak) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wieczerzak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWieczerzak 1.40 / Jesiek 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Wieczerzak)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13083426
Wieczerzak1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it75% 55 of 73
Jesiek2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 73 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeWieczerzak2wins
AwayJesiek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderWieczerzak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWieczerzak66.7%2 of 3
AwayJesiekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wieczerzak3Jesiek0n = 3Wieczerzak took 3 of 3
S2Wieczerzak1Jesiek2n = 3Jesiek took 2 of 3
S3Wieczerzak2Jesiek1n = 3Wieczerzak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricWieczerzakJesiekW − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match43.334.3+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWieczerzakJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 249 vs 272 / 51953.8%52.4%134 / 249 vs 272 / 519Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakWieczerzak 1.40/Jesiek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jesiek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak—117131192J. Jesiek—811155113
WJul 11 · 11:25J. Wieczerzak—111011143J. Jesiek—3125121
WJul 11 · 05:15J. Wieczerzak—1111113J. Jesiek—7680
J. Wieczerzak10
WSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652LSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113WSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113WSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660LSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113LSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133LSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113LSep 5 · 14:20J. Wieczerzak2.257101111132W. Wojtaszczyk1.57111279153
J. Jesiek10
WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882LSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670WSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113LSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281WSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113LSep 5 · 16:40J. Jesiek1.7611690W. Buczynski1.901311113
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