TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082639
Played Sep 6Finished
Jacek Wieczerzak
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1187111315115911
Jakub Jesiek
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeJacek Wieczerzak to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJacek Wieczerzak above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jacek Wieczerzak at 71.6%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Wieczerzak 2–1 Jakub Jesiek Jakub Jesiek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Wieczerzak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wieczerzak 1494 vs Jesiek 1336
Wieczerzak
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wieczerzak 60% vs Jesiek 40%
Wieczerzak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wieczerzak 70% vs Jesiek 40%
Wieczerzak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wieczerzak -1 · Jesiek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Wieczerzak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wieczerzak form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWieczerzak 1.36 / Jesiek 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Wieczerzak)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082639
Wieczerzak1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 72 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Jesiek3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 70 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeWieczerzak2wins
AwayJesiek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderWieczerzak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWieczerzak66.7%2 of 3
AwayJesiekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wieczerzak3Jesiek0n = 3Wieczerzak took 3 of 3
S2Wieczerzak1Jesiek2n = 3Jesiek took 2 of 3
S3Wieczerzak2Jesiek1n = 3Wieczerzak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricWieczerzakJesiekW − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match43.334.3+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWieczerzakJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 244 vs 270 / 51454.1%52.5%132 / 244 vs 270 / 514Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakWieczerzak 1.36/Jesiek 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.6%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jesiek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak—117131192J. Jesiek—811155113
WJul 11 · 11:25J. Wieczerzak—111011143J. Jesiek—3125121
WJul 11 · 05:15J. Wieczerzak—1111113J. Jesiek—7680
J. Wieczerzak10
WSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652LSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113LSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123WSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113WSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660LSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113LSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133LSep 5 · 14:20J. Wieczerzak2.257101111132W. Wojtaszczyk1.57111279153
J. Jesiek10
WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882LSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581WSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123LSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670WSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113LSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281LSep 5 · 16:40J. Jesiek1.7611690W. Buczynski1.901311113
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