TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082433
Played Sep 6Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111113911––––
Jakub Jesiek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 63 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 65.3%
63 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 0–1 Jakub Jesiek Zbigniew Sobkow has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1476 vs Jesiek 1346
Sobkow
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 60% vs Jesiek 40%
Sobkow
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 60% vs Jesiek 30%
Sobkow
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow +3 · Jesiek -1
Sobkow
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Sobkow)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.44 / Jesiek 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082433
Sobkow1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Jesiek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 73 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSobkow0wins
AwayJesiek1wins
Jesiek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricSobkowJesiekS − JBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match28.035.0−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 72 vs 271 / 51656.9%52.5%41 / 72 vs 271 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.44/Jesiek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jesiek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow—81190J. Jesiek—1113113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481WSep 5 · 13:55Z. Sobkow2.63111012113P. Jedrzejak1.449121061
J. Jesiek10
WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882LSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581WSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123LSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670LSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281WSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113LSep 5 · 16:40J. Jesiek1.7611690W. Buczynski1.901311113
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