TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13085901
Played Sep 6Finished
Piotr Gumulinski
Home
2.11
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118711116911119
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:28 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gumulinski above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 10-9
Point 93 set 5, 10-9 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 66.7%
93 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Piotr Gumulinski 1–0 Zbigniew Sobkow Zbigniew Sobkow has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gumulinski 1468 vs Sobkow 1440
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gumulinski 100% vs Sobkow 40%
Gumulinski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gumulinski 80% vs Sobkow 40%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gumulinski +5 · Sobkow +1
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 33% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGumulinski 2.11 / Sobkow 1.62
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobkow)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13085901
Gumulinski2.11
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog56% won 141 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back43% 60 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back19% 12 of 65
Sobkow1.62
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeGumulinski1wins
AwaySobkow0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderGumulinski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricGumulinskiSobkowG − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match51.053.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGumulinskiSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime1020 / 1812 vs 42 / 7556.3%56%1020 / 1812 vs 42 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowGumulinski 2.11/Sobkow 1.62
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 6 · 07:45P. Gumulinski—5111113113Z. Sobkow—11991592
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652WSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661WSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113WSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113WSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191WSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281LSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940WSep 5 · 02:10A. Szurgot5.5010711101P. Gumulinski1.1312113123
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481WSep 5 · 13:55Z. Sobkow2.63111012113P. Jedrzejak1.449121061
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