TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082484
Played Sep 6Finished
Piotr Gumulinski
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11714127111210––
Jakub Jesiek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gumulinski above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 84 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 64.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gumulinski 5–1 Jakub Jesiek Jakub Jesiek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:19What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gumulinski 1449 vs Jesiek 1366
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gumulinski 80% vs Jesiek 60%
Gumulinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gumulinski 80% vs Jesiek 50%
Gumulinski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gumulinski +4 · Jesiek +1
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Gumulinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jesiek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGumulinski 1.50 / Jesiek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Gumulinski)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13082484
Gumulinski1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 342 of 573
Up 2–0, closes it93% 156 of 168
Up 1–0, closes it75% 233 of 312
Jesiek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 73 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGumulinski5wins
AwayJesiek1wins
Gumulinski leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGumulinski100%4 of 4
AwayJesiekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gumulinski4Jesiek2n = 6Gumulinski took 4 of 6
S2Gumulinski5Jesiek1n = 6Gumulinski took 5 of 6
S3Gumulinski3Jesiek3n = 6split evenly
S4Gumulinski3Jesiek0n = 3Gumulinski took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGumulinskiJesiekG − JBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match35.827.3+8.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGumulinskiJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime1019 / 1811 vs 272 / 51856.3%52.5%1019 / 1811 vs 272 / 518Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiGumulinski 1.50/Jesiek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 31 · 02:45P. Gumulinski—1411113J. Jesiek—12580
LAug 30 · 18:25P. Gumulinski—61050J. Jesiek—1112113
WAug 1 · 13:10P. Gumulinski—111111113J. Jesiek—134961
WAug 1 · 05:30P. Gumulinski—11117113J. Jesiek—651161
WMay 29 · 17:55P. Gumulinski—1111113J. Jesiek—6650
WOct 22 · 02:45P. Gumulinski—11118113J. Jesiek—641171
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652WSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661WSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113WSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113WSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191WSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281LSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940WSep 5 · 02:10A. Szurgot5.5010711101P. Gumulinski1.1312113123
J. Jesiek10
WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882LSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581WSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670WSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113LSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281WSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113LSep 5 · 16:40J. Jesiek1.7611690W. Buczynski1.901311113
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