TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13085900
Played Sep 6Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111214711––––
Patryk Jedrzejak
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatryk Jedrzejak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Patryk Jedrzejak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 7-9
Point 62 set 3, 7-9 — our read held Patryk Jedrzejak at 54.0%
62 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 1–2 Patryk Jedrzejak Zbigniew Sobkow has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jedrzejak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1423 vs Jedrzejak 1473
Jedrzejak
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Jedrzejak 20%
Sobkow
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 50% vs Jedrzejak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow +1 · Jedrzejak -4
Jedrzejak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Jedrzejak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jedrzejak form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.38 / Jedrzejak 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Jedrzejak)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13085900
Sobkow2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 10 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Jedrzejak1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 171 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it97% 99 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it86% 131 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSobkow1wins
AwayJedrzejak2wins
Jedrzejak leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow1Jedrzejak2n = 3Jedrzejak took 2 of 3
S2Sobkow1Jedrzejak2n = 3Jedrzejak took 2 of 3
S3Sobkow1Jedrzejak2n = 3Jedrzejak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSobkowJedrzejakS − JBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.037.0−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowJedrzejakBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 77 vs 362 / 53655.8%67.5%43 / 77 vs 362 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejakSobkow 2.38/Jedrzejak 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Jedrzejak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jedrzejak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow—6650P. Jedrzejak—1111113
WSep 5 · 13:55Z. Sobkow—111012113P. Jedrzejak—9121061
LSep 5 · 04:10Z. Sobkow—7119111P. Jedrzejak—11611133
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481WSep 5 · 13:55Z. Sobkow2.63111012113P. Jedrzejak1.449121061
P. Jedrzejak10
LSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661LSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113WSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970WSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940LSep 5 · 13:55Z. Sobkow2.63111012113P. Jedrzejak1.449121061
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.