TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13080789
Played Sep 5Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11910121210116––
Patryk Jedrzejak
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:09 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timePatryk Jedrzejak to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Patryk Jedrzejak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 81 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Patryk Jedrzejak at 56.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 0–1 Patryk Jedrzejak Zbigniew Sobkow has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jedrzejak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1437 vs Jedrzejak 1524
Jedrzejak
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 20% vs Jedrzejak 40%
Jedrzejak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 40% vs Jedrzejak 60%
Jedrzejak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -4 · Jedrzejak -1
Sobkow
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Jedrzejak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jedrzejak form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.63 / Jedrzejak 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Jedrzejak)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13080789
Sobkow2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog47% won 8 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Jedrzejak1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 166 of 224
Up 2–0, closes it97% 96 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it87% 127 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSobkow0wins
AwayJedrzejak1wins
Jedrzejak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSobkowJedrzejakS − JBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match38.041.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowJedrzejakBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 68 vs 358 / 52755.9%67.9%38 / 68 vs 358 / 527Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejakSobkow 2.63/Jedrzejak 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Jedrzejak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 5 · 04:10Z. Sobkow—7119111P. Jedrzejak—11611133
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481
P. Jedrzejak10
LSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113WSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661LSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113WSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970WSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940
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