TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13078391
Played Sep 4Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111181161311––
Andrzej Szurgot
Away
2.35
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:38 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Andrzej Szurgot below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Mariusz Adamus at 71.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 1–0 Andrzej Szurgot Andrzej Szurgot has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:38What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1262 vs Szurgot 1150
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 20% vs Szurgot 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 30% vs Szurgot 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Szurgot -3
Szurgot
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szurgot form (20%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.50 / Szurgot 2.35
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Adamus)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13078391
Adamus1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 224 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it88% 84 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it72% 152 of 211
Szurgot2.35
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog18% won 6 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeAdamus1wins
AwaySzurgot0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderAdamus leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricAdamusSzurgotA − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match54.043.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 1619 vs 12 / 5848.4%20.7%783 / 1619 vs 12 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.01.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.131.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.50/Szurgot 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 4 · 15:50M. Adamus—9111211113A. Szurgot—11714652
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
A. Szurgot10
LSep 6 · 04:40A. Szurgot4.802460P. Polok1.131111113LSep 6 · 03:05R. Szymik1.241111113A. Szurgot3.558580LSep 6 · 02:20L. Bernacki1.62911815113A. Szurgot2.17118111372LSep 6 · 01:30A. Szurgot2.604880R. Adach1.421111113WSep 6 · 24:20A. Szurgot2.61911811113R. Wiza1.4411711782LSep 5 · 22:40A. Szurgot4.503139111P. Polok1.17111111133LSep 5 · 21:05R. Szymik1.521111113A. Szurgot2.307460LSep 5 · 20:20R. Wiza1.591111113A. Szurgot2.186680LSep 5 · 19:30A. Szurgot2.203590R. Adach1.571111113LSep 5 · 18:20A. Szurgot3.05313471L. Bernacki1.31111111113
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