TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076922
Played Sep 4Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118711811116115
Mariusz Adamus
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Mariusz Adamus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Mariusz Adamus at 54.2%
89 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 34–37 Mariusz Adamus Krzysztof Schaniel has won 34 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-37 in 71
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1319 vs Adamus 1267
Schaniel
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 20% vs Adamus 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 30% vs Adamus 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel -3 · Adamus -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.83 / Adamus 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Schaniel)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13076922
Schaniel1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Adamus1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel5wins
AwayAdamus5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel50%3 of 6
AwayAdamus50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel6Adamus4n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S2Schaniel4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Schaniel4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Schaniel5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S5Schaniel4Adamus3n = 7Schaniel took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielAdamusS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match46.244.0+2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime868 / 1733 vs 781 / 161550.1%48.4%868 / 1733 vs 781 / 1615Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.83/Adamus 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 31 · 23:55K. Schaniel—9101113113M. Adamus—111231172
WJul 31 · 17:55K. Schaniel—137811133M. Adamus—1111119112
WJul 16 · 17:05K. Schaniel—121110113M. Adamus—1071281
LJul 16 · 08:45K. Schaniel—1110111292M. Adamus—912714113
LJun 2 · 22:00K. Schaniel—11116942M. Adamus—181111113
LMay 20 · 05:35K. Schaniel—1011981M. Adamus—12911113
WMay 7 · 02:00K. Schaniel—5101111113M. Adamus—11126772
WMar 24 · 23:00K. Schaniel—118117113M. Adamus—51151142
LMar 24 · 19:00K. Schaniel—1177101M. Adamus—61111123
LFeb 20 · 16:55K. Schaniel—111181182M. Adamus—136118113
K. Schaniel10
LSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113WSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310911131P. Przewlocki2.0012116153WSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113WSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241WSep 6 · 22:50K. Schaniel2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.443980WSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113WSep 5 · 01:45K. Schaniel1.611111113G. Sawicki2.205670
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
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