TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087198
Played Sep 7Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161311113––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 55 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Jakub Nowak at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 34–38 Jakub Nowak Mariusz Adamus has won 34 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-38 in 72
Nowak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1270 vs Nowak 1297
Nowak
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Nowak 40%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Nowak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Nowak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Nowak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.10 / Nowak 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Nowak)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13087198
Adamus2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 177 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 223
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 120
Nowak1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 73 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it69% 51 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus2wins
AwayNowak8wins
8 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 8–2, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus25%1 of 4
AwayNowak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S2Adamus4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Adamus5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamus5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S5Adamus2Nowak6n = 8Nowak took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusNowakA − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.147.4−3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime785 / 1619 vs 671 / 173748.5%38.6%785 / 1619 vs 671 / 1737Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakAdamus 2.10/Nowak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 22:20M. Adamus—31111972J. Nowak—119811113
LAug 29 · 05:05M. Adamus—118671J. Nowak—81111113
LAug 28 · 20:45M. Adamus—119118122J. Nowak—811211143
LAug 12 · 06:25M. Adamus—99111152J. Nowak—111159113
LAug 4 · 03:35M. Adamus—99111152J. Nowak—111165113
LJun 21 · 03:35M. Adamus—11912842J. Nowak—7111011113
LJun 4 · 05:10M. Adamus—815871J. Nowak—111311113
WJun 3 · 24:00M. Adamus—117812123J. Nowak—6111110102
LMay 20 · 06:45M. Adamus—1011111142J. Nowak—129136113
WMay 19 · 07:10M. Adamus—511713123J. Nowak—1181111102
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
J. Nowak10
WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113LSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113LSep 7 · 03:50J. Nowak2.2511173882J. Pruszkowski1.579151111113WSep 7 · 02:20J. Nowak2.251112113J. Pruszkowski1.5781070WSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123LSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971WSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113LSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571LSep 5 · 13:30J. Nowak2.389111371W. Wojtaszczyk1.5311915113
Upcoming Matches
M. Adamus
J. Nowak
Sep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91R. Niemiec1.80—Sep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 7 · 18:45J. Nowak—M. Sikon——Sep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——Sep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——
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