TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077837
Played Sep 5Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111311115117––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-6
Point 68 set 4, 5-6 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 66.9%
68 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 55–16 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 16 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-16 in 71
Szostok
Correct
gap of 39 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1474 vs Nowak 1323
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Nowak 40%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 80% vs Nowak 40%
Szostok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +1 · Nowak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Szostok)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.50 / Nowak 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Szostok)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13077837
Szostok1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 328 of 514
Up 2–0, closes it94% 124 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it78% 214 of 275
Nowak2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog36% won 241 of 666
Down 0–1, comes back21% 85 of 403
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 234
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok9wins
AwayNowak1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok100%7 of 7
AwayNowak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok7Nowak3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S2Szostok4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Szostok5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S4Szostok7Nowak2n = 9Szostok took 7 of 9
S5Szostok4Nowak0n = 4Szostok took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokNowakS − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.941.6+3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime935 / 1577 vs 673 / 173859.3%38.7%935 / 1577 vs 673 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.50/Nowak 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 1 · 16:25S. Szostok—1011611113J. Nowak—12611842
WJul 1 · 02:10S. Szostok—10101112113J. Nowak—121271052
WJun 30 · 20:05S. Szostok—131111113J. Nowak—1191371
WApr 12 · 13:55S. Szostok—11411113J. Nowak—711751
WApr 12 · 07:55S. Szostok—119118123J. Nowak—511911102
WMar 31 · 15:55S. Szostok—178136113J. Nowak—1511111182
LMar 31 · 09:55S. Szostok—79100J. Nowak—1111123
WMar 9 · 02:30S. Szostok—11713113J. Nowak—9111191
WMar 8 · 20:30S. Szostok—13126133J. Nowak—111011111
WFeb 26 · 03:00S. Szostok—111110133J. Nowak—9812111
S. Szostok10
LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 13:05S. Szostok2.2011311113P. Jedrzejak1.611111351LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok1.837640J. Wieczerzak1.831111113WSep 5 · 10:10S. Szostok1.9111611113Z. Sobkow1.80511631LSep 5 · 09:00S. Szostok2.109911101W. Wojtaszczyk1.6711115123WSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113WSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113WSep 4 · 13:55G. Wichowski1.85791121S. Szostok1.8511118113WSep 4 · 13:10O. Jadach2.20881191S. Szostok1.5711115113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113
J. Nowak10
WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113LSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130LSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113LSep 7 · 03:50J. Nowak2.2511173882J. Pruszkowski1.579151111113WSep 7 · 02:20J. Nowak2.251112113J. Pruszkowski1.5781070WSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123LSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971WSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113LSep 5 · 13:30J. Nowak2.389111371W. Wojtaszczyk1.5311915113
Upcoming Matches
S. Szostok
J. Nowak
Sep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91R. Niemiec1.80—Sep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 7 · 18:45J. Nowak—M. Sikon——Sep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——Sep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——
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