TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090344
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
1.81
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811711114118911
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:56 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
811711114118911
H2H Jakub Nowak 8–8 Mateusz Sikon Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Sikon beat Nowak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (50%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1296 vs Sikon 1278
Nowak
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Sikon 20%
Nowak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Sikon 20%
Nowak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak +1 · Sikon -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nowak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.81 / Sikon 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nowak)+3.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13090344
Nowak1.81
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 74 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 77
Sikon1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 85 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back13% 23 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak5wins
AwaySikon5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak57.1%4 of 7
AwaySikon66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak7Sikon3n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S2Nowak2Sikon8n = 10Sikon took 8 of 10
S3Nowak5Sikon5n = 10split evenly
S4Nowak4Sikon4n = 8split evenly
S5Nowak3Sikon3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakSikonN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.142.7+0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime671 / 1738 vs 138 / 37438.6%36.9%671 / 1738 vs 138 / 374Avg sets wonper match1.81.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakNowak 1.81/Sikon 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 18:45J. Nowak—11811782M. Sikon—911711113
LSep 2 · 08:45J. Nowak—121181162M. Sikon—1013118113
LSep 1 · 22:25J. Nowak—13890M. Sikon—1511113
WSep 1 · 03:30J. Nowak—11115113M. Sikon—751191
WAug 31 · 21:30J. Nowak—1111127113M. Sikon—135101192
WAug 5 · 24:35J. Nowak—1181111113M. Sikon—51161382
WJul 31 · 11:50J. Nowak—11811113M. Sikon—711791
LJul 31 · 03:50J. Nowak—12911992M. Sikon—1011611113
LJul 28 · 04:20J. Nowak—7770M. Sikon—1111113
WJul 27 · 18:45J. Nowak—11111011113M. Sikon—81312972
J. Nowak10
WSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153WSep 8 · 24:30O. Jadach2.2411990J. Nowak1.581311113LSep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak2.70114119112K. Adamus1.37911811133LSep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak2.903660O. Jadach1.351111113LSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113LSep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak2.201010130P. Kurek1.571212153LSep 7 · 18:45M. Sikon1.86911711113J. Nowak1.8311811782WSep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak2.401161113113K. Adamus1.5051171582WSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192
M. Sikon10
LSep 8 · 03:30O. Jadach1.4711911113M. Sikon2.45611441LSep 8 · 02:10M. Sikon2.7575130K. Adamus1.361111153WSep 8 · 24:50M. Sikon1.7611911113P. Kurek1.96811881LSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171LSep 7 · 23:05M. Sikon2.7599100K. Adamus1.361111123LSep 7 · 21:30M. Sikon2.808390O. Jadach1.391111113LSep 7 · 20:20M. Sikon2.359850G. Marud1.541111113WSep 7 · 18:45M. Sikon1.86911711113J. Nowak1.8311811782LSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon2.301174111P. Kurek1.5291111133LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
M. Sikon
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