TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090350
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.31
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3111113811––––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:57 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
3111113811––––
H2H Jakub Nowak 34–68 Grzegorz Marud Jakub Nowak has won 34 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-68 in 102
Marud
Correct
gap of 34 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1300 vs Marud 1375
Marud
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 60% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 50% vs Marud 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -2 · Marud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.31 / Marud 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Marud)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13090350
Nowak2.31
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 243 of 677
Down 0–1, comes back21% 87 of 410
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 237
Marud1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 134 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it86% 81 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it69% 107 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayMarud7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMarud75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak2Marud8n = 10Marud took 8 of 10
S2Nowak2Marud8n = 10Marud took 8 of 10
S3Nowak4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Nowak2Marud5n = 7Marud took 5 of 7
S5Nowak3Marud0n = 3Nowak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakMarudN − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.040.6−5.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime670 / 1736 vs 638 / 136138.6%46.9%670 / 1736 vs 638 / 1361Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudNowak 2.31/Marud 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.8%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 23:30J. Nowak—1112671G. Marud—131011113
WAug 31 · 19:10J. Nowak—691111133G. Marud—111158112
LAug 5 · 01:45J. Nowak—91380G. Marud—1115113
LJul 28 · 24:30J. Nowak—5911101G. Marud—11119123
WJul 27 · 22:20J. Nowak—811117113G. Marud—11591192
LJul 27 · 24:45J. Nowak—5650G. Marud—1111113
LJul 26 · 22:20J. Nowak—8550G. Marud—1111113
LJul 14 · 22:00J. Nowak—7911121G. Marud—11116143
WJul 5 · 06:00J. Nowak—1181012113G. Marud—511121052
LJun 16 · 04:40J. Nowak—114831G. Marud—61111113
J. Nowak10
LSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:55G. Jurowicz1.801111119102J. Nowak1.91613811123WSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113WSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LSep 8 · 04:20J. Nowak1.8187111192M. Sikon1.83111148113WSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153
G. Marud10
WSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113WSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130
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