TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097814
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511211––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 47 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
47 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 13–6 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Marud
Wrong
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1431 vs Oracz 1534
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 80% vs Oracz 100%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 70% vs Oracz 100%
Oracz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +4 · Oracz +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.83 / Oracz 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oracz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13097814
Marud1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Oracz1.83
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud7wins
AwayOracz3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud71.4%5 of 7
AwayOracz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud7Oracz3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S2Marud5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Marud6Oracz4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Marud5Oracz2n = 7Marud took 5 of 7
S5Marud2Oracz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudOraczM − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.534.6+4.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1363 vs 817 / 146847%55.7%641 / 1363 vs 817 / 1468Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczMarud 1.83/Oracz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud—11711382L. Oracz—711711113
WSep 6 · 20:20G. Marud—10111112113L. Oracz—125131022
WAug 3 · 02:20G. Marud—1111113L. Oracz—7440
WAug 2 · 18:20G. Marud—71111113L. Oracz—118561
WJul 21 · 23:35G. Marud—115116113L. Oracz—91191162
LJul 15 · 01:10G. Marud—6890L. Oracz—1111113
WJul 6 · 03:05G. Marud—111211113L. Oracz—614781
WJul 5 · 21:05G. Marud—11115113L. Oracz—971151
WJul 5 · 04:00G. Marud—1112113L. Oracz—51070
LJul 1 · 24:25G. Marud—116101152L. Oracz—511125113
G. Marud10
WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100WSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171LSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183WSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113
L. Oracz10
WSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113WSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281WSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660
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