TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097272
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114511114111––
Mariusz Koczyba
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Mariusz Koczyba below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 58 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 60.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 18–49 Mariusz Koczyba Grzegorz Marud has won 18 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-49 in 67
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 31 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1411 vs Koczyba 1377
Marud
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Koczyba 20%
Marud
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 60% vs Koczyba 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +2 · Koczyba -3
Koczyba
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 2.25 / Koczyba 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Koczyba)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13097272
Marud2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 131 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Koczyba1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it95% 180 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it82% 242 of 296
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud0wins
AwayKoczyba10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud0%0 of 5
AwayKoczyba100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud5Koczyba5n = 10split evenly
S2Marud1Koczyba9n = 10Koczyba took 9 of 10
S3Marud1Koczyba9n = 10Koczyba took 9 of 10
S4Marud0Koczyba5n = 5Koczyba took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudKoczybaM − KBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match26.838.3−11.5per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudKoczybaBasisWin rate · lifetime639 / 1362 vs 865 / 131246.9%65.9%639 / 1362 vs 865 / 1312Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaMarud 2.25/Koczyba 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 19:10G. Marud—6640M. Koczyba—1111113
LJul 14 · 19:10G. Marud—6740M. Koczyba—1111113
LJul 7 · 19:10G. Marud—11146111M. Koczyba—31611133
LJun 30 · 19:10G. Marud—8390M. Koczyba—1111113
LJun 23 · 19:10G. Marud—5980M. Koczyba—1111113
LJun 16 · 16:25G. Marud—113361M. Koczyba—31111113
LJun 9 · 16:25G. Marud—9230M. Koczyba—1111113
LMay 26 · 16:25G. Marud—12511772M. Koczyba—1011911113
LMay 12 · 16:25G. Marud—119671M. Koczyba—71111113
LMay 5 · 19:10G. Marud—11115392M. Koczyba—771111113
G. Marud10
WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100WSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171LSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183WSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113WSep 7 · 20:20M. Sikon2.359850G. Marud1.541111113
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740LAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741WAug 26 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.361111113O. Sokolowski2.957980LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.7091161252P. Adamus2.001141110113WAug 26 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.50117116113S. Krupa2.4051191142WAug 26 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.56111198113K. Juszczyk2.2275111142
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
M. Koczyba
Sep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.44G. Jurowicz2.63—Sep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36J. Nowak3.00—Sep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.73P. Adamus2.00—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.27G. Jurowicz3.20—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——
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