TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097444
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119411911––
Pawel Adamus
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 7–5 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1366 vs Adamus 1415
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 20% vs Adamus 40%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 40% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -4 · Adamus -2
Koczyba
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Koczyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.73 / Adamus 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Koczyba)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13097444
Koczyba1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it95% 180 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it82% 242 of 296
Adamus2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 92 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back27% 28 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba5wins
AwayAdamus5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba60%3 of 5
AwayAdamus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba8Adamus2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S3Koczyba3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba3Adamus6n = 9Adamus took 6 of 9
S5Koczyba2Adamus1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaAdamusK − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.6+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime865 / 1313 vs 361 / 65065.9%55.5%865 / 1313 vs 361 / 650Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.73/Adamus 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 22:25M. Koczyba—118741P. Adamus—51111113
LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba—91161252P. Adamus—1141110113
WAug 4 · 15:25M. Koczyba—612116113P. Adamus—111061152
LJul 21 · 18:30M. Koczyba—713561P. Adamus—111111113
WJul 2 · 18:25M. Koczyba—11117113P. Adamus—771151
LApr 30 · 02:00M. Koczyba—1110891P. Adamus—71211113
WApr 29 · 16:25M. Koczyba—11118113P. Adamus—581161
WFeb 10 · 19:25M. Koczyba—5111112113P. Adamus—11591492
LNov 1 · 08:35M. Koczyba—911991P. Adamus—11711113
WSep 6 · 06:00M. Koczyba—1111113P. Adamus—5460
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740LAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741WAug 26 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.361111113O. Sokolowski2.957980LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.7091161252P. Adamus2.001141110113WAug 26 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.50117116113S. Krupa2.4051191142
P. Adamus10
LSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971LSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113LSep 6 · 21:10P. Adamus2.0011313131J. Pruszkowski1.7091115153WSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113WAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741WAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.7091161252P. Adamus2.001141110113
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba1 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36J. Nowak3.00—Sep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80P. Adamus1.91—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.27G. Jurowicz3.20—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——Sep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—W. Jozala——
P. Adamus2 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:20P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 8 · 20:05P. Adamus1.57G. Jurowicz2.25—Sep 8 · 21:00P. Adamus1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 8 · 22:35P. Adamus1.67G. Marud2.10—Sep 8 · 23:20P. Adamus1.91M. Koczyba1.80—Sep 9 · 01:25P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 9 · 02:10P. Adamus1.39G. Jurowicz2.60—Sep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus—M. Lebek——Sep 9 · 23:10P. Adamus—A. Burkacki——Sep 10 · 24:00P. Adamus—P. Slosarczyk——
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