TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014147
Played Aug 27Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111199111113––
Sebastian Krupa
Away
2.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
7111199111113––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 36–7 Sebastian Krupa Sebastian Krupa has won 7 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-7 in 43
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 29 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1420 vs Krupa 1338
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Krupa 20%
Koczyba
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 70% vs Krupa 40%
Koczyba
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +1 · Krupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.36 / Krupa 2.85
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Koczyba)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13014147
Koczyba1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 361 of 534
Up 2–0, closes it95% 191 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it83% 261 of 316
Krupa2.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 62 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back15% 13 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba9wins
AwayKrupa1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%5 of 5
AwayKrupa20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Krupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba6Krupa4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba7Krupa3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba7Krupa0n = 7Koczyba took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaKrupaKoczyba − KrupaBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.932.5+6.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaKrupaBasisWin rate · lifetime875 / 1319 vs 299 / 59466.3%50.3%875 / 1319 vs 299 / 594Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.36/Krupa 2.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 28 · 16:00M. Koczyba—1071112113S. Krupa—121191082
WJun 25 · 24:45M. Koczyba—1111113S. Krupa—9840
WJun 24 · 18:45M. Koczyba—11611113S. Krupa—711981
WJun 17 · 20:00M. Koczyba—11119113S. Krupa—781171
WJun 10 · 22:25M. Koczyba—81111113S. Krupa—116281
WJun 10 · 18:45M. Koczyba—11611113S. Krupa—911461
WJun 3 · 20:00M. Koczyba—811711113S. Krupa—11411982
LMay 27 · 18:45M. Koczyba—8540S. Krupa—1111113
WMay 12 · 18:45M. Koczyba—1111113S. Krupa—5650
WMay 3 · 08:00M. Koczyba—131111113S. Krupa—158771
M. Koczyba10
LSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.5581114113W. Jozala2.251131271WSep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.55471114113M. Baron2.30111151262LSep 9 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.10761211113M. Koczyba1.60111110892WSep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.331111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.107980LSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113LSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.7351111952G. Jurowicz2.00117311113LSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133
S. Krupa10
WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.74911121152S. Krupa1.95116149113WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891WSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 16:00W. Jozala2.80119571S. Krupa1.3561111113LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113LSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123WSep 6 · 23:35S. Krupa2.1011119123J. Pruszkowski1.608311101WSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113WSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540
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