TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098558
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118611611––
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 7–7 Pawel Adamus Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Adamus beat Koczyba 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1283 vs Adamus 1410
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 0% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 10% vs Adamus 50%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -5 · Adamus -1
Koczyba
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.80 / Adamus 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098558
Koczyba1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it95% 180 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it82% 242 of 296
Adamus1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 92 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back27% 28 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba50%2 of 4
AwayAdamus66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba8Adamus2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S3Koczyba2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S4Koczyba3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S5Koczyba2Adamus1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaAdamusK − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.4−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime861 / 1314 vs 365 / 65665.5%55.6%861 / 1314 vs 365 / 656Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusKoczyba 1.80/Adamus 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba—511661P. Adamus—11811113
LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba—811491P. Adamus—11911113
LAug 26 · 22:25M. Koczyba—118741P. Adamus—51111113
LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba—91161252P. Adamus—1141110113
WAug 4 · 15:25M. Koczyba—612116113P. Adamus—111061152
LJul 21 · 18:30M. Koczyba—713561P. Adamus—111111113
WJul 2 · 18:25M. Koczyba—11117113P. Adamus—771151
LApr 30 · 02:00M. Koczyba—1110891P. Adamus—71211113
WApr 29 · 16:25M. Koczyba—11118113P. Adamus—581161
WFeb 10 · 19:25M. Koczyba—5111112113P. Adamus—11591492
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740
P. Adamus10
LSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113LSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113WSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971
Upcoming Matches
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