TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098274
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210116––––
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Pawel Adamus at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 9–12 Pawel Adamus Grzegorz Marud has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Marud beat Adamus 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:50What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1464 vs Adamus 1405
Marud
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 80% vs Adamus 60%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 70% vs Adamus 50%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +2 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 2.10 / Adamus 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Adamus)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13098274
Marud2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 131 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Adamus1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 192 of 306
Up 2–0, closes it98% 89 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it77% 140 of 181
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud3wins
AwayAdamus7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud30%3 of 10
AwayAdamusn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud10Adamus0n = 10Marud took 10 of 10
S2Marud3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S3Marud5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S4Marud1Adamus7n = 8Adamus took 7 of 8
S5Marud0Adamus3n = 3Adamus took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudAdamusM − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.0−1.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1364 vs 364 / 65547%55.6%641 / 1364 vs 364 / 655Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusMarud 2.10/Adamus 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 24:20G. Marud—118891P. Adamus—91111113
LAug 30 · 20:20G. Marud—12137542P. Adamus—10111111113
LAug 25 · 03:05G. Marud—118881P. Adamus—91111113
WAug 24 · 21:05G. Marud—1211113P. Adamus—10770
LAug 5 · 24:10G. Marud—11411922P. Adamus—611811113
WAug 4 · 20:30G. Marud—1111113P. Adamus—7980
LJul 13 · 04:40G. Marud—1188101P. Adamus—51111123
WJul 12 · 22:40G. Marud—11911113P. Adamus—811581
LJul 5 · 06:45G. Marud—129111192P. Adamus—1011613113
LJun 15 · 24:20G. Marud—111110101P. Adamus—81312123
G. Marud10
WSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100
P. Adamus10
WSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113WSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113LSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113WSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971
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