TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097800
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119115––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 61.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 68–34 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 34 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-34 in 102
Marud
Correct
gap of 34 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1421 vs Nowak 1298
Marud
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 80% vs Nowak 40%
Marud
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 60% vs Nowak 40%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Nowak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.67 / Nowak 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Marud)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13097800
Marud1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 138 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it87% 84 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it69% 110 of 160
Nowak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 247 of 686
Down 0–1, comes back21% 88 of 415
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 241
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud7wins
AwayNowak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud75%6 of 8
AwayNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud8Nowak2n = 10Marud took 8 of 10
S2Marud8Nowak2n = 10Marud took 8 of 10
S3Marud6Nowak4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Marud5Nowak2n = 7Marud took 5 of 7
S5Marud0Nowak3n = 3Nowak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudNowakM − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.635.0+5.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1364 vs 671 / 174047%38.6%641 / 1364 vs 671 / 1740Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.67/Nowak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 23:30G. Marud—131011113J. Nowak—1112671
LAug 31 · 19:10G. Marud—111158112J. Nowak—691111133
WAug 5 · 01:45G. Marud—1115113J. Nowak—91380
WJul 28 · 24:30G. Marud—11119123J. Nowak—5911101
LJul 27 · 22:20G. Marud—11591192J. Nowak—811117113
WJul 27 · 24:45G. Marud—1111113J. Nowak—5650
WJul 26 · 22:20G. Marud—1111113J. Nowak—8550
WJul 14 · 22:00G. Marud—11116143J. Nowak—7911121
LJul 5 · 06:00G. Marud—511121052J. Nowak—1181012113
WJun 16 · 04:40G. Marud—61111113J. Nowak—114831
G. Marud10
WSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100WSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171
J. Nowak10
WSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113LSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113WSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LSep 8 · 04:20J. Nowak1.8187111192M. Sikon1.83111148113WSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153WSep 8 · 24:30O. Jadach2.2411990J. Nowak1.581311113LSep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak2.70114119112K. Adamus1.37911811133
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