TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091124
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114711116––
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Pawel Adamus at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 9–12 Pawel Adamus Grzegorz Marud has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1398 vs Adamus 1437
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Adamus 40%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Adamus 70%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +1 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.83 / Adamus 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13091124
Marud1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Adamus1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud3wins
AwayAdamus7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud30%3 of 10
AwayAdamusn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud10Adamus0n = 10Marud took 10 of 10
S2Marud3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S3Marud5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S4Marud1Adamus7n = 8Adamus took 7 of 8
S5Marud0Adamus3n = 3Adamus took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudAdamusM − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.0−1.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime638 / 1361 vs 369 / 66346.9%55.7%638 / 1361 vs 369 / 663Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusMarud 1.83/Adamus 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 24:20G. Marud—118891P. Adamus—91111113
LAug 30 · 20:20G. Marud—12137542P. Adamus—10111111113
LAug 25 · 03:05G. Marud—118881P. Adamus—91111113
WAug 24 · 21:05G. Marud—1211113P. Adamus—10770
LAug 5 · 24:10G. Marud—11411922P. Adamus—611811113
WAug 4 · 20:30G. Marud—1111113P. Adamus—7980
LJul 13 · 04:40G. Marud—1188101P. Adamus—51111123
WJul 12 · 22:40G. Marud—11911113P. Adamus—811581
LJul 5 · 06:45G. Marud—129111192P. Adamus—1011613113
LJun 15 · 24:20G. Marud—111110101P. Adamus—81312123
G. Marud10
WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100WSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171LSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183WSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113WSep 7 · 20:20M. Sikon2.359850G. Marud1.541111113LSep 7 · 19:30G. Marud2.10741151K. Adamus1.6011119113LSep 7 · 18:20G. Marud2.25811571O. Jadach1.5411411113
P. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971LSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113LSep 6 · 21:10P. Adamus2.0011313131J. Pruszkowski1.7091115153WSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113WSep 1 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek3.305590P. Adamus1.271111113WSep 1 · 05:35P. Gumulinski1.958101161P. Adamus1.7711128113WSep 1 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.6097100P. Adamus1.421111123WSep 1 · 03:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.7511861272P. Adamus1.378111110113
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
Sep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.57G. Jurowicz2.25—Sep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.67J. Nowak2.10—Sep 8 · 21:45G. Marud1.47G. Jurowicz2.39—Sep 8 · 22:35G. Marud1.83P. Adamus1.83—Sep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.67J. Nowak2.10—Sep 9 · 01:00G. Marud1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 9 · 01:45G. Marud2.25M. Koczyba1.57—
P. Adamus2 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 16:35P. Adamus2.10L. Oracz1.67—Sep 8 · 17:20P. Adamus2.00M. Koczyba1.73—Sep 8 · 19:20P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 8 · 20:05P. Adamus1.45G. Jurowicz2.43—Sep 8 · 21:00P. Adamus2.01L. Oracz1.66—Sep 8 · 22:35P. Adamus1.83G. Marud1.83—Sep 8 · 23:20P. Adamus2.00M. Koczyba1.73—Sep 9 · 01:25P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 9 · 02:10P. Adamus—G. Jurowicz——Sep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus—M. Lebek——
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