TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098279
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Home
2.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611611––––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Jurowicz above · Grzegorz Marud below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Jurowicz 1–1 Grzegorz Marud Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Marud beat Jurowicz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jurowicz 1304 vs Marud 1430
Marud
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jurowicz 40% vs Marud 80%
Marud
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jurowicz 50% vs Marud 70%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jurowicz +2 · Marud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJurowicz 2.40 / Marud 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Marud)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13098279
Jurowicz2.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 92 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back17% 26 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 83
Marud1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 138 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it87% 84 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it69% 110 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJurowicz1wins
AwayMarud1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJurowiczMarudJ − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match36.540.0−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJurowiczMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 796 vs 641 / 136439.5%47%314 / 796 vs 641 / 1364Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudJurowicz 2.40/Marud 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LDec 23 · 23:00G. Jurowicz—36111142G. Marud—111199113
WDec 23 · 21:45G. Jurowicz—51111113G. Marud—117381
G. Jurowicz10
WSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470LSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113LSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113LSep 4 · 02:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.651111113G. Jurowicz2.101840WSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590WSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123LSep 3 · 23:10M. Lebek1.3511511113G. Jurowicz2.95611171WSep 3 · 21:35K. Hetnar1.295890G. Jurowicz3.301111113
G. Marud10
WSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100
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