TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097818
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1315511611––––
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Jurowicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Grzegorz Jurowicz below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 61 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Grzegorz Jurowicz at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 1–0 Grzegorz Jurowicz Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:53What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1356 vs Jurowicz 1268
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 0% vs Jurowicz 20%
Jurowicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 30% vs Jurowicz 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -5 · Jurowicz -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jurowicz form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.44 / Jurowicz 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Koczyba)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13097818
Koczyba1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it95% 180 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it82% 242 of 296
Jurowicz2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 92 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back17% 26 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKoczyba1wins
AwayJurowicz0wins
Koczyba leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKoczybaJurowiczK − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match37.027.0+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaJurowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime865 / 1314 vs 312 / 79465.8%39.3%865 / 1314 vs 312 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.435.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.44/Jurowicz 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jurowicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WDec 24 · 01:45M. Koczyba—41111113G. Jurowicz—113491
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740LAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741WAug 26 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.361111113O. Sokolowski2.957980LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.7091161252P. Adamus2.001141110113
G. Jurowicz10
LSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470LSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113LSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113LSep 4 · 02:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.651111113G. Jurowicz2.101840WSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590WSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123LSep 3 · 23:10M. Lebek1.3511511113G. Jurowicz2.95611171WSep 3 · 21:35K. Hetnar1.295890G. Jurowicz3.301111113LSep 3 · 20:45K. Adamus1.3311811113G. Jurowicz2.95611891LSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba1 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36J. Nowak3.00—Sep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80P. Adamus1.91—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.27G. Jurowicz3.20—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——Sep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—W. Jozala——Sep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba—S. Krupa——
G. Jurowicz
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