TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014146
Played Aug 27Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
41111131210511––
Pawel Kurek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
41111131210511––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 18–3 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 3 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-3 in 21
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 15 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1405 vs Kurek 1385
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 40% vs Kurek 80%
Kurek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Kurek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.45 / Kurek 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Koczyba)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13014146
Koczyba1.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 361 of 534
Up 2–0, closes it95% 191 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it83% 261 of 316
Kurek2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 110 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back26% 41 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba9wins
AwayKurek1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%6 of 6
AwayKurek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba6Kurek4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba6Kurek4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba6Kurek4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba8Kurek1n = 9Koczyba took 8 of 9
S5Koczyba3Kurek1n = 4Koczyba took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaKurekKoczyba − KurekBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.236.8+7.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime875 / 1320 vs 347 / 70166.3%49.5%875 / 1320 vs 347 / 701Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.45/Kurek 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.8%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 04:25M. Koczyba—117811113P. Kurek—31111572
WAug 7 · 15:25M. Koczyba—11911113P. Kurek—611841
WJul 22 · 16:00M. Koczyba—91111113P. Kurek—118971
WJul 12 · 06:25M. Koczyba—1111811113P. Kurek—13811952
WJul 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—1111116113P. Kurek—91341182
LJun 27 · 06:45M. Koczyba—91161132P. Kurek—116119113
WJun 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba—121111113P. Kurek—146981
WJun 17 · 18:45M. Koczyba—111113113P. Kurek—8131171
WJun 16 · 21:45M. Koczyba—1111133P. Kurek—79110
WJun 10 · 21:35M. Koczyba—11119113P. Kurek—381131
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740LAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741WAug 26 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.361111113O. Sokolowski2.957980LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.7091161252P. Adamus2.001141110113WAug 26 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.50117116113S. Krupa2.4051191142
P. Kurek10
LSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550WSep 8 · 03:55K. Adamus1.708670P. Kurek1.911111113WSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153LSep 8 · 24:50M. Sikon1.7611911113P. Kurek1.96811881LSep 7 · 23:30O. Jadach1.581711512113P. Kurek2.20199111072WSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183LSep 7 · 21:55K. Adamus1.7011118113P. Kurek2.05651171WSep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak2.201010130P. Kurek1.571212153WSep 7 · 19:10O. Jadach1.559101491P. Kurek2.25111212113WSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon2.301174111P. Kurek1.5291111133
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba1 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36J. Nowak3.00—Sep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80P. Adamus1.91—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.27G. Jurowicz3.20—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——Sep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—W. Jozala——
P. Kurek
Sep 9 · 03:50P. Kurek1.91O. Vincenec1.80—Sep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.44K. Schaniel2.63—Sep 9 · 05:40P. Kurek2.10R. Gajda1.67—Sep 9 · 06:30P. Kurek1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.38P. Gumulinski1.53—Sep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10R. Gajda1.67—Sep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.44K. Schaniel2.63—Sep 9 · 11:50P. Kurek1.91O. Vincenec1.80—Sep 9 · 12:40P. Kurek1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek2.38P. Gumulinski1.53—
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