TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014148
Played Aug 26Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114117114––––
Marian Lebek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
114117114––––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 52–9 Marian Lebek Marian Lebek has won 9 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-9 in 61
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 43 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1405 vs Lebek 1427
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Lebek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Lebek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Lebek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.66 / Lebek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Koczyba)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13014148
Koczyba1.66
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 361 of 534
Up 2–0, closes it95% 191 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it83% 261 of 316
Lebek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 107 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back28% 28 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba8wins
AwayLebek2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba87.5%7 of 8
AwayLebekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba8Lebek2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S2Koczyba6Lebek4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba7Lebek3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba4Lebek2n = 6Koczyba took 4 of 6
S5Koczyba3Lebek2n = 5Koczyba took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaLebekK − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.934.7+6.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime874 / 1318 vs 842 / 146566.3%57.5%874 / 1318 vs 842 / 1465Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.66/Lebek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 23:35M. Koczyba—812511113M. Lebek—111011762
WAug 5 · 23:35M. Koczyba—136117113M. Lebek—111181122
WJul 29 · 23:35M. Koczyba—1111123M. Lebek—65100
LJul 23 · 24:25M. Koczyba—11351162M. Lebek—911118113
WJul 15 · 21:35M. Koczyba—119119113M. Lebek—51151182
WJul 8 · 22:50M. Koczyba—141011113M. Lebek—1212371
WJul 1 · 21:35M. Koczyba—1111113M. Lebek—5790
WJun 24 · 23:35M. Koczyba—1111123M. Lebek—87100
WJun 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba—1112113M. Lebek—61050
LJun 11 · 24:45M. Koczyba—91191252M. Lebek—1141110113
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133LAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741WAug 26 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.361111113O. Sokolowski2.957980LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.7091161252P. Adamus2.001141110113WAug 26 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.50117116113S. Krupa2.4051191142
M. Lebek10
LSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113WSep 4 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz2.805680M. Lebek1.371111113LSep 4 · 06:00P. Mecik3.1011119113M. Lebek1.33861181LSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113WSep 4 · 04:00M. Lebek1.261111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.503450WSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 24:45K. Hetnar1.681011811113M. Lebek2.0312211852LSep 4 · 24:00A. Ruszkiewicz3.601181011113M. Lebek1.2381112952WSep 3 · 23:10M. Lebek1.3511511113G. Jurowicz2.95611171WSep 3 · 22:00M. Lebek2.0511113113K. Adamus1.66961181
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba1 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36J. Nowak3.00—Sep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80P. Adamus1.91—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.27G. Jurowicz3.20—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——Sep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—W. Jozala——
M. Lebek2 of 9 neutral
Sep 8 · 22:00M. Lebek1.45M. Adamus2.43—Sep 8 · 22:50M. Lebek1.44M. Paszkiewicz2.48—Sep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek1.45O. Sokolowski2.44—Sep 9 · 01:10M. Lebek1.29M. Sikon3.05—Sep 9 · 02:00M. Lebek1.92M. Tkocz1.72—Sep 9 · 03:10M. Lebek1.44M. Paszkiewicz2.47—Sep 9 · 04:25M. Lebek1.32J. Kaczmarek2.90—Sep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek—M. Adamus——Sep 9 · 22:00M. Lebek—P. Adamus——
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