TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070811
Played Sep 3Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116311118––
Kacper Adamus
Away
1.66
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
119116311118––
H2H Marian Lebek 27–29 Kacper Adamus Marian Lebek has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-29 in 56
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1484 vs Adamus 1444
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 60% vs Adamus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 60% vs Adamus 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek +3 · Adamus +1
Lebek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 2.05 / Adamus 1.66
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Adamus)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13070811
Lebek2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 107 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Adamus1.66
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 357 of 587
Up 2–0, closes it98% 196 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it78% 285 of 366
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek7wins
AwayAdamus3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek100%6 of 6
AwayAdamus75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek6Adamus4n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S2Lebek4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Lebek6Adamus4n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S4Lebek4Adamus5n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S5Lebek3Adamus0n = 3Lebek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekAdamusL − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.540.4+1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime846 / 1461 vs 929 / 171457.9%54.2%846 / 1461 vs 929 / 1714Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusLebek 2.05/Adamus 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 24:25M. Lebek—11811113K. Adamus—911891
LAug 20 · 22:50M. Lebek—75100K. Adamus—1111123
WAug 7 · 02:45M. Lebek—11128153K. Adamus—41011131
WJul 31 · 02:00M. Lebek—811118113K. Adamus—11991142
LJul 24 · 02:00M. Lebek—871291K. Adamus—111110113
WJul 16 · 23:35M. Lebek—11118113K. Adamus—691191
WJul 9 · 22:00M. Lebek—145168113K. Adamus—1211141172
LJul 3 · 02:00M. Lebek—711951K. Adamus—11711113
WJun 26 · 02:00M. Lebek—11811113K. Adamus—911491
WJun 19 · 02:00M. Lebek—1191111113K. Adamus—81151382
M. Lebek10
LSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113WSep 4 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz2.805680M. Lebek1.371111113LSep 4 · 06:00P. Mecik3.1011119113M. Lebek1.33861181LSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113WSep 4 · 04:00M. Lebek1.261111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.503450WSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 24:45K. Hetnar1.681011811113M. Lebek2.0312211852LSep 4 · 24:00A. Ruszkiewicz3.601181011113M. Lebek1.2381112952WSep 3 · 23:10M. Lebek1.3511511113G. Jurowicz2.95611171WSep 3 · 08:00M. Paszkiewicz2.60411461M. Lebek1.4111811113
K. Adamus10
WSep 5 · 08:45K. Adamus1.4711119143W. Pytlas2.458611121WSep 5 · 07:10K. Adamus1.66118115113J. Jesiek2.1081191162LSep 5 · 06:00K. Adamus2.456850P. Zemla1.471111113WSep 5 · 04:25K. Adamus1.391111113R. Adach2.706740LSep 5 · 03:10K. Adamus1.3598111492O. Sokolowski2.801111712113WSep 4 · 02:00K. Hetnar1.5110101191K. Adamus2.3412129113LSep 4 · 01:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.5014812133K. Adamus1.45121110111LSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123LSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113WSep 3 · 20:45K. Adamus1.3311811113G. Jurowicz2.95611891
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