TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13074505
Played Sep 4Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.92
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119116––––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.76
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:58 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
117119116––––
H2H Marian Lebek 57–46 Marek Tkocz Marek Tkocz has won 46 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-46 in 103
Lebek
Correct
gap of 11 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1472 vs Tkocz 1425
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 60% vs Tkocz 40%
Lebek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 50% vs Tkocz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek -2 · Tkocz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.92 / Tkocz 1.76
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tkocz)+1.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13074505
Lebek1.92
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 107 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Tkocz1.76
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 320 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 181 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it84% 262 of 311
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek7wins
AwayTkocz3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek85.7%6 of 7
AwayTkocz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek7Tkocz3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Lebek6Tkocz4n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S3Lebek4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S4Lebek5Tkocz2n = 7Lebek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekTkoczL − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.335.2+1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime848 / 1465 vs 758 / 113257.9%67%848 / 1465 vs 758 / 1132Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczLebek 1.92/Tkocz 1.76
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 21:35M. Lebek—1111153M. Tkocz—78130
LAug 25 · 23:10M. Lebek—8770M. Tkocz—1111113
WAug 20 · 23:35M. Lebek—131148113M. Tkocz—119111152
LAug 19 · 24:25M. Lebek—4880M. Tkocz—1111113
WAug 14 · 24:00M. Lebek—11116113M. Tkocz—781191
WAug 11 · 21:10M. Lebek—11411133M. Tkocz—8117111
WAug 6 · 22:25M. Lebek—71111113M. Tkocz—117671
WAug 4 · 23:35M. Lebek—11114113M. Tkocz—941171
WJul 31 · 03:30M. Lebek—11119113M. Tkocz—571141
LJul 30 · 23:35M. Lebek—115113102M. Tkocz—811811123
M. Lebek10
LSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113WSep 4 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz2.805680M. Lebek1.371111113LSep 4 · 06:00P. Mecik3.1011119113M. Lebek1.33861181LSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113WSep 4 · 04:00M. Lebek1.261111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.503450LSep 4 · 24:45K. Hetnar1.681011811113M. Lebek2.0312211852LSep 4 · 24:00A. Ruszkiewicz3.601181011113M. Lebek1.2381112952WSep 3 · 23:10M. Lebek1.3511511113G. Jurowicz2.95611171WSep 3 · 22:00M. Lebek2.0511113113K. Adamus1.66961181WSep 3 · 08:00M. Paszkiewicz2.60411461M. Lebek1.4111811113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590LSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz3.5016413113M. Tkocz1.2514111151WSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113WSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 17:35K. Hetnar2.051111133M. Tkocz1.6699110WSep 3 · 16:50S. Szostok1.93713761M. Tkocz1.77111111113LSep 3 · 15:10K. Adamus2.03111178113M. Tkocz1.6787111162LSep 2 · 02:00J. Nowak2.1011611113M. Tkocz1.65911791
Upcoming Matches
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M. Tkocz1 of 4 neutral
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