TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13072304
Played Sep 3Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.93
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111311711611––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.77
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:08 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
7111311711611––
H2H Sebastian Szostok 10–13 Marek Tkocz Sebastian Szostok has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1348 vs Tkocz 1453
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 20% vs Tkocz 40%
Tkocz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 30% vs Tkocz 70%
Tkocz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -2 · Tkocz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.93 / Tkocz 1.77
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tkocz)+1.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13072304
Szostok1.93
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 76 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Tkocz1.77
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 320 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 181 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it84% 262 of 311
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok3wins
AwayTkocz7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkocz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Szostok3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S3Szostok5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S4Szostok3Tkocz3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokTkoczS − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.637.3−2.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime929 / 1568 vs 754 / 112559.3%67%929 / 1568 vs 754 / 1125Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczSzostok 1.93/Tkocz 1.77
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 25 · 03:45S. Szostok—6360M. Tkocz—1111113
WJan 1 · 06:20S. Szostok—111111113M. Tkocz—134671
WJan 1 · 24:50S. Szostok—111211183M. Tkocz—7146161
LDec 31 · 18:25S. Szostok—91111272M. Tkocz—1111510113
LDec 31 · 24:10S. Szostok—11590M. Tkocz—1311113
WNov 12 · 03:20S. Szostok—1111113M. Tkocz—6940
LNov 11 · 21:20S. Szostok—11105151M. Tkocz—81211173
LNov 8 · 01:45S. Szostok—711891M. Tkocz—11911113
LNov 7 · 23:20S. Szostok—5911101M. Tkocz—11118123
LSep 30 · 23:10S. Szostok—9980M. Tkocz—1111113
S. Szostok10
LSep 7 · 08:45P. Mecik3.4011811113S. Szostok1.28811891WSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571WSep 5 · 13:05S. Szostok2.2011311113P. Jedrzejak1.611111351LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok1.837640J. Wieczerzak1.831111113WSep 5 · 10:10S. Szostok1.9111611113Z. Sobkow1.80511631LSep 5 · 09:00S. Szostok2.109911101W. Wojtaszczyk1.6711115123WSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113WSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590LSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz3.5016413113M. Tkocz1.2514111151WSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113WSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 17:35K. Hetnar2.051111133M. Tkocz1.6699110LSep 3 · 15:10K. Adamus2.03111178113M. Tkocz1.6787111162LSep 2 · 02:00J. Nowak2.1011611113M. Tkocz1.65911791
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