TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073086
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
5.05
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911116611117611
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.12
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 88.2% is still 88.2%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
88.2%
88.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
911116611117611
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 2–32 Marek Tkocz Jakub Kaczmarek has won 2 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.12 (82%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-32 in 34
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 30 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1322 vs Tkocz 1457
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Tkocz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Tkocz 60%
Tkocz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +1 · Tkocz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 88% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (40%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 5.05 / Tkocz 1.12
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Tkocz)+5.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13073086
Kaczmarek5.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 161 of 492
Down 0–1, comes back18% 58 of 320
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 179
Tkocz1.12
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 320 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 181 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it84% 262 of 311
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek1wins
AwayTkocz9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTkocz100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek1Tkocz9n = 10Tkocz took 9 of 10
S2Kaczmarek0Tkocz10n = 10Tkocz took 10 of 10
S3Kaczmarek2Tkocz8n = 10Tkocz took 8 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away880%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekTkoczK − TBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match23.236.0−12.8per matchSweeps08−83–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 1289 vs 756 / 112736.4%67.1%469 / 1289 vs 756 / 1127Avg sets wonper match1.62.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczKaczmarek 5.05/Tkocz 1.12
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.1%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 18:25J. Kaczmarek—671681M. Tkocz—111114113
LAug 4 · 17:35J. Kaczmarek—8560M. Tkocz—1111113
LJul 10 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek—9660M. Tkocz—1111113
LJul 8 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek—76100M. Tkocz—1111123
LJun 17 · 01:35J. Kaczmarek—5940M. Tkocz—1111113
WJun 3 · 01:35J. Kaczmarek—125124113M. Tkocz—1011101162
LJun 2 · 19:35J. Kaczmarek—6890M. Tkocz—1111113
LMay 27 · 08:20J. Kaczmarek—7540M. Tkocz—1111113
LMay 22 · 03:30J. Kaczmarek—4450M. Tkocz—1111113
LMay 20 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—5580M. Tkocz—1111113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380
M. Tkocz10
LSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590LSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz3.5016413113M. Tkocz1.2514111151WSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 17:35K. Hetnar2.051111133M. Tkocz1.6699110WSep 3 · 16:50S. Szostok1.93713761M. Tkocz1.77111111113LSep 3 · 15:10K. Adamus2.03111178113M. Tkocz1.6787111162LSep 2 · 02:00J. Nowak2.1011611113M. Tkocz1.65911791
Upcoming Matches
J. Kaczmarek
M. Tkocz1 of 4 neutral
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.