TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076471
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
3.35
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119311119711
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.27
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:51 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
911119311119711
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 15–23 Sebastian Szostok Jakub Kaczmarek has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:51What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (73%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-23 in 38
Szostok
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1329 vs Szostok 1377
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 60% vs Szostok 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Szostok 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +2 · Szostok +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (60%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 3.35 / Szostok 1.27
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Szostok)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13076471
Kaczmarek3.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 164 of 501
Down 0–1, comes back18% 58 of 324
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 181
Szostok1.27
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 329 of 516
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 214 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek4wins
AwaySzostok6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek50%3 of 6
AwaySzostok75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek6Szostok4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S2Kaczmarek5Szostok5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaczmarek3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S4Kaczmarek3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S5Kaczmarek3Szostok2n = 5Kaczmarek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekSzostokK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.448.1−3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 1288 vs 933 / 157536.4%59.2%469 / 1288 vs 933 / 1575Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.840.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokKaczmarek 3.35/Szostok 1.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.1%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 16:00J. Kaczmarek—11126113S. Szostok—9101181
LAug 24 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek—711381S. Szostok—11911113
LAug 24 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek—1916131162S. Szostok—1718158113
LAug 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek—913891S. Szostok—111111113
WAug 7 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek—138811123S. Szostok—1111119102
LAug 3 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek—12111351S. Szostok—14715113
LJul 24 · 11:00J. Kaczmarek—11611762S. Szostok—811811113
WJul 24 · 04:55J. Kaczmarek—812116113S. Szostok—111071182
WApr 3 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek—1111118113S. Szostok—81361182
LApr 1 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—1371251S. Szostok—111114113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380LSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113
S. Szostok10
LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571WSep 5 · 13:05S. Szostok2.2011311113P. Jedrzejak1.611111351LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok1.837640J. Wieczerzak1.831111113WSep 5 · 10:10S. Szostok1.9111611113Z. Sobkow1.80511631LSep 5 · 09:00S. Szostok2.109911101W. Wojtaszczyk1.6711115123WSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113WSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113WSep 4 · 13:55G. Wichowski1.85791121S. Szostok1.8511118113WSep 4 · 13:10O. Jadach2.20881191S. Szostok1.5711115113
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