TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076248
Played Sep 4Finished
Rafal Niemiec
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111412119911711
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeRafal Niemiec to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
103 points played in total.
Set by set
8111412119911711
H2H Rafal Niemiec 3–3 Jakub Kaczmarek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:58What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaczmarek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niemiec 1333 vs Kaczmarek 1318
Niemiec
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niemiec 40% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niemiec 40% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niemiec +1 · Kaczmarek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Niemiec) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiemiec 1.85 / Kaczmarek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Niemiec)+4.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13076248
Niemiec1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 18 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Kaczmarek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 71 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 56 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeNiemiec3wins
AwayKaczmarek3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiemiecn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKaczmarek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niemiec1Kaczmarek5n = 6Kaczmarek took 5 of 6
S2Niemiec4Kaczmarek2n = 6Niemiec took 4 of 6
S3Niemiec1Kaczmarek5n = 6Kaczmarek took 5 of 6
S4Niemiec2Kaczmarek3n = 5Kaczmarek took 3 of 5
S5Niemiec3Kaczmarek0n = 3Niemiec took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricNiemiecKaczmarekN − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match41.743.8−2.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiemiecKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 244 vs 468 / 128761.9%36.4%151 / 244 vs 468 / 1287Avg sets wonper match2.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.235.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiemiecNiemiec 1.85/Kaczmarek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Niemiec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 5 · 11:50R. Niemiec—1110911133J. Kaczmarek—712118112
LAug 5 · 03:50R. Niemiec—59100J. Kaczmarek—1111123
LJul 30 · 09:10R. Niemiec—813881J. Kaczmarek—111111113
LJul 27 · 11:50R. Niemiec—811591J. Kaczmarek—11711113
WJun 22 · 13:30R. Niemiec—811119113J. Kaczmarek—11951192
WJun 22 · 07:20R. Niemiec—711716113J. Kaczmarek—118111472
R. Niemiec10
LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113LSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113WSep 4 · 10:20G. Wichowski1.501351081R. Niemiec2.40111112113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Jadach1.6011841192R. Niemiec2.10911116113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380LSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113
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