TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076461
Played Sep 4Finished
Rafal Niemiec
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113911711911––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.55
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
113911711911––
H2H Rafal Niemiec 2–1 Sebastian Szostok Sebastian Szostok has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niemiec 1351 vs Szostok 1398
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niemiec 60% vs Szostok 80%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niemiec 50% vs Szostok 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niemiec +2 · Szostok +3
Szostok
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiemiec 2.25 / Szostok 1.55
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Szostok)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13076461
Niemiec2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog39% won 18 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Szostok1.55
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 329 of 516
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 214 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeNiemiec2wins
AwaySzostok1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderNiemiec leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niemiec1Szostok2n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
S2Niemiec1Szostok2n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
S3Niemiec2Szostok1n = 3Niemiec took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricNiemiecSzostokN − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match41.745.3−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiemiecSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 247 vs 935 / 157761.9%59.3%153 / 247 vs 935 / 1577Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokNiemiec 2.25/Szostok 1.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 4 · 07:10R. Niemiec—115118113S. Szostok—41191192
WAug 26 · 11:25R. Niemiec—1121114113S. Szostok—131991162
LAug 26 · 05:15R. Niemiec—10560S. Szostok—1211113
R. Niemiec10
LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113WSep 4 · 10:20G. Wichowski1.501351081R. Niemiec2.40111112113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Jadach1.6011841192R. Niemiec2.10911116113LSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113
S. Szostok10
LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571WSep 5 · 13:05S. Szostok2.2011311113P. Jedrzejak1.611111351LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok1.837640J. Wieczerzak1.831111113WSep 5 · 10:10S. Szostok1.9111611113Z. Sobkow1.80511631LSep 5 · 09:00S. Szostok2.109911101W. Wojtaszczyk1.6711115123WSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113WSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113WSep 4 · 13:55G. Wichowski1.85791121S. Szostok1.8511118113WSep 4 · 13:10O. Jadach2.20881191S. Szostok1.5711115113
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