TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077478
Played Sep 4Finished
Rafal Niemiec
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511141212103111214
Wojciech Tobiasz
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:19 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeRafal Niemiec to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
104 points played in total.
Set by set
511141212103111214
H2H Rafal Niemiec 2–1 Wojciech Tobiasz Wojciech Tobiasz has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Tobiasz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niemiec 1330 vs Tobiasz 1294
Niemiec
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niemiec 40% vs Tobiasz 20%
Niemiec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niemiec 40% vs Tobiasz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niemiec -2 · Tobiasz -4
Tobiasz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Niemiec) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tobiasz form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiemiec 1.85 / Tobiasz 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Niemiec)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077478
Niemiec1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Tobiasz1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeNiemiec2wins
AwayTobiasz1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderNiemiec leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niemiec2Tobiasz1n = 3Niemiec took 2 of 3
S2Niemiec2Tobiasz1n = 3Niemiec took 2 of 3
S3Niemiec1Tobiasz2n = 3Tobiasz took 2 of 3
S4Niemiec1Tobiasz2n = 3Tobiasz took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricNiemiecTobiaszN − TBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match41.341.30.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiemiecTobiaszBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 249 vs 336 / 73161.5%46%153 / 249 vs 336 / 731Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiemiecNiemiec 1.85/Tobiasz 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Niemiec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tobiasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 4 · 06:20R. Niemiec—513991W. Tobiasz—111111113
WAug 17 · 12:20R. Niemiec—111110113W. Tobiasz—741291
WAug 17 · 08:20R. Niemiec—1121110113W. Tobiasz—81191282
R. Niemiec10
LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113LSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113WSep 4 · 10:20G. Wichowski1.501351081R. Niemiec2.40111112113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Jadach1.6011841192R. Niemiec2.10911116113LSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113
W. Tobiasz10
LSep 7 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.3513115113W. Tobiasz2.851171121LSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113LSep 4 · 15:05G. Wichowski1.3721111113W. Tobiasz2.75113741LSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 12:20W. Tobiasz2.358911121O. Jadach1.5011117143LSep 4 · 10:40W. Tobiasz2.5088100S. Szostok1.461111123LSep 4 · 09:05G. Wichowski1.301111143W. Tobiasz3.1085120WSep 4 · 08:20O. Jadach1.351212971W. Tobiasz2.95141011113LSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113WSep 4 · 06:20W. Tobiasz1.86111111113R. Niemiec1.80513991
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